401k

Your 401k account is probably loaded up in the wrong asset class

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401k accounts good and bad. They’re mostly good because they provide an avenue for people to save and invest money for their future, but there are some things to watch out for.

Good stuff:

  • The main benefit of a 401k is that it allows you to invest qualified money. You could just invest money on your own, but investing in your 401k accounts means that you get some significant tax advantages (no capital gains on the growth of your investments and an income tax break). The same advantages apply to IRA accounts, but 401ks include two other significant advantages.
  • Many employers offer a matching contribution. For example, if you contribute a certain small percentage of your income (say 5%), the employer may kick in an additional small percentage into your 401k account (say 4%). That’s free money, and you should definitely take it.
  • 401k contributions are capped at $19,000 per year by the employee, employer contributions can exceed that. IRA contributions are capped at $6,000 per year. Not all of us are maxing out our qualified retirement accounts, but the larger cap offered by 401k accounts is certainly an advantage.

Bad stuff:

  • 401k accounts offer a limited number of investing options, and they’re almost never great. 401k Plan sponsors (employers) are typically concerned with one thing when choosing a plan: cost. If the plan seems expensive it will be harder to explain to the board, regardless of the value or benefits of the portfolio and the advisor.
  • Your money is locked up for as long as you work at the company. You’re stuck with the options available and you can’t move the money elsewhere unless you leave or retire.
  • Investors have little to no help deciding which funds or options to use within the 401k so they end up in default options, which are usually target dated funds. You may have seen these funds that end with a future year, like 2045, which you’d be in if you were expected to retire sometime around 2045. A target dated fund is not the worst investment you could be in (which isn’t saying much) but it’s far from ideal. A target dated fund will load you up in U.S. large growth companies (essentially the S&P 500), sprinkle in some international large growth companies, and decide what percentage of your money should be in bonds based on the target year. Unfortunately, in the history of the market, large growth company asset classes are among the lowest-performing of any asset classes over time. A target dated fund is usually made up of index funds (along with their inherent problems) so at least it’s not active, but it will sacrifice large amounts of return over time because of its poor diversification.

Don’t be afraid to use your 401k account, especially if your employer offers a matching contribution (again, free money). But if you’ve obtained the maximum matching contribution, think about investing additional money into a better portfolio through an IRA. Unfortunately, your 401k is probably loaded up in the wrong asset class.

There are only two ways to invest (part 1)

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If you’ve faced an investing decision at any point in your history you know it can be daunting. Maybe you’ve reviewed your 401k options within the plan at your work, how in the world should you decide which funds to use? Maybe you’re feeling the pressure to start saving for your future, how do you decide who would manage your hard-earned savings well? Conduct any amount of research and instead of settling anything you’ll find innumerable different philosophies and strategies and a lot of recommendations to ‘invest in what you believe in.’ Well, I’m going to try to help you understand the first decision you have to make.

The first decision is actually pretty simple, there are only two options because there are only two ways to invest. You can invest your money actively or passively.

  1. Active means that either you yourself or someone you delegate to selects stocks and investments they believe will do well. At work in active investing is a fundamental belief that the market is not all that efficient and smart people can achieve better returns by only investing in the ‘right’ things.
  2. Passive investing means that you don’t try to choose the ‘right’ companies or even market sectors. Instead, you own the whole market and hold it passively. At work in passive investing is a belief that the market is mostly efficient, and probably better at setting prices based on supply and demand than you are.

You certainly aren’t done making investment decisions when you’ve answered this question, but it’s the first thing you need to interact with. So when you start evaluating, start with this question, will you be an active or passive investor?

We’ll dig into these options in part 2.

How does your retirement plan look?

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Many of us, especially those who are younger, probably haven’t thought much about our retirement plans. I wouldn’t have put any thought into it either if I wasn’t an investment advisor. But I’ve run into some troubling stats about the relationship between Americans and retirement, so I think it’s worth talking about.

First, by retirement, I mostly mean age, like somewhere in your 60s. I don’t mean quitting all obligations and sitting around by a lake somewhere. Retirement definitely could include that (I’m counting on it!), but most of us probably won’t be content to only sit around. We’ll probably be doing some kind of work when we’re retired. What you definitely don’t want when you’re in your 60s is to be working full time out of necessity at a job you’d rather not be working at (which is unfortunately normal among retirement age Americans). I think about retirement as a time when people have options. I’ll personally want to keep working or doing something productive, but it could be work that doesn’t pay, or pays very little; I’ll be doing it because I want to, not because I have to. And let’s be honest, at some point we just won’t have the strength to keep working full time, so we need a plan to pay the bills.

Here’s a problem, 1 in 3 Americans has nothing saved for retirement. 4 out of 5 Americans have less than one year’s worth of income saved in retirement accounts. That obviously isn’t great. Consumer debt is on the rise. Student loans put young people in a large hole right out of college, the most fruitful investing years. Credit card debt is up. Car loans are accepted as the normal way to buy a car. The average American starts behind finically and borrows their way further down. Partly because of this debt crisis and partly because of our consumer culture, Americans only save about 3% of their income today, barely enough to keep up with inflation let alone fund their futures.

Compounding all of this is our increasing dependence on savings for retirement. Generation Y (Millennials) and Generation Z will to need to lean on investment accounts more than any generation before for a few reasons:

1) Pensions are all but gone. They’re a conduit for too much risk to employers who have shifted to 401(k) offerings. This trend isn’t actually bad, the market will do a better job growing money, and many employees offer generous 401k matching programs. But in order for it to work employees need to be intentional about utilizing 401(k)s, and to understand how the money is invested within the 401(k)s. That’s where we tend to fall short. Employees miss out on $1,336 in employer matches each year. We also let the money we do have in 401(k)s languish in actively trading mutual funds, surrendering large sums to fees and sub-market performance.

2) We don’t know exactly what Social Security will look like in the future, on its current trajectory it will have to be cut by about 23% by 2033. There will likely still be some sort of social security benefits down the road but it’s not something reliable enough to stake retirement on.

So right now, regardless of your age, do you have any idea what your retirement is going to look like? One meeting with an advisor to take a quick look at your situation could save you worlds of financial hurt down the road. Maybe you’re actually in great shape, or maybe there are just a few small things you can change which would have a dramatic impact on your financial future, or maybe you need someone to tell you your lifestyle needs trimming. It’s something you can, and probably should know.

Finances by age

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We’ve all heard of general financial guidelines which wisdom would suggest we follow. Dave Ramsey talks about them, financial planners use them, we all interact with them on some level. As you move through life the guidelines also move a little bit, some things you didn’t have to deal with in your 20’s become pressing in your 40’s, and vice versa. This is a breakdown of these financial guidelines by age, things that you should be thinking about based on your stage of life. This does not mean that you’ve failed if you’re working on some 20’s things in your 30’s or 40’s, or even 50’s. But these guidelines are a helpful measuring stick to see how you’re doing currently, and they provide a good pathway for lifetime financial success. Let’s dig in.

Teen years:

  • The number one thing you can do in your teens is to start developing good financial habits.
  • Stay away from consumer debt. These debts are often subject to high interest rates (credit cards), tied to depreciating assets (cars), and often end up funding things that are unnecessary. They encourage bad spending habits and can cost years to catch up from.
  • Learn to save money. Instead of unnecessary spending, practice going the other way, save up money for things you want. 
  • Learn to work hard. Financial guidelines will certainly help you succeed, but you won’t get far if you can’t earn money. 
  • Get through college with minimal student loans.


20’s:

  • Now you’re out of college and real life is set in. The number one thing you can do is create a zero-sum budget and stick to it as if your life depends on it. Give yourself some spending money, make sure to budget your savings, and again, avoid consumer debt. The budget is not a forecast of your future spending, and it’s not just for tracking your spending either, it’s for planning your spending. You intentionally decide what you’re going to spend money on and how much, and you don’t spend beyond that. 
  • Start a financial plan. Meet with an advisor, learn about how the market works, and start putting together a loose plan for retirement. Things will obviously change, but the plan will ensure that you’re pointed in the right direction.
  • Create an emergency fund. Dave Ramsey says save $1,000, that’s a good place to start. Eventually, you might work up to a month or two worth of expenses. This is how you will pay for life’s curveballs instead of using your credit card.
  • If your company offers a 401k plan, start putting some money away. The money you invest in your 20’s will work the hardest for you over the long haul. If your company’s 401k plan offers some sort of match, try to contribute whatever is required to take full advantage of the match. The free money is hard to pass up.
  • Be aggressive about paying off student loans (and any other consumer debts).
  • Start saving for a house.


30’s & 40’s:

  • Now that you’ve set the stage in your 20’s, you’re ready to start executing in your 30’s and 40’s. Keep meeting with your advisor and updating the plan, keep learning, and keep on the straight and narrow.
  • Become debt free (aside from a potential mortgage loan). If you have any consumer debt or student loans, be aggressive about paying them off.
  • Think about buying a house. Your financial plan will show you that buying a house is the most cost-effective way to provide housing, a home is a good asset. Save up a large down payment and ensure the payment fits nicely in the budget, there are few things more financially stressful than being ‘house-poor.’
  • Make a plan to pay off the house, ideally in 15 years or less. Owning a home free and clear is one of the most impactful things you can do for your retirement. It’s also a great way to help kids through college if that’s a goal of yours.
  • Increase retirement savings. You’ve been contributing enough to take advantage of the match, but there’s no need to stop there. Bump up your 401k percentage or put some extra money away in an IRA. 15% of your income is a good goal.
  • Buy some term life insurance, especially if you have children. A 20-year policy is often sufficient, the goal is to ensure that your family will be well-off in the event of a tragedy.
  • Put together a will, again, especially if you have children. It’s another way to ensure the family will be well-off in the event of a tragedy.
  • Increase the emergency fund to cover 3-6 months (or whatever number feels most comfortable) worth of expenses. Think about this money as insurance. It’s not going to earn much if anything, but that’s not what it’s for. The investments will earn money for retirement, the insurance is to shield you from unforeseen events.

50’s:

  • Talk to your advisor about your investment allocations. As you move closer to retirement, you’ll want to ensure the retirement funds will be available for you, which means you’ll probably scale back the risk factor in your portfolio, or at least have a plan in place to do so. This means owning a higher percentage of bonds and fixed income type assets and fewer equities (stocks). A good advisor will engage with you on this subject pro-actively.
  • Adjust investment contributions. It could be a good time to increase savings again to maximize what will be available in retirement. It’s the home stretch!
  • Pay off your home. I mentioned this earlier, but paying off your home is one of the most significant things you can do for your retirement. From a cash-flow perspective, it makes a ton of sense. If you owe $100,000 on your mortgage, and your payment is $750 per month, you’ll gain $9,000 in spendable cash-flow per year for spending by paying the $100,000. If you instead saved that $100,000, you would be able to pull about 5-6% per year ($5,000-$6,000) and you’d still be making the mortgage payment. A mortgage-free budget will also be much more flexible. Many people end up working in retirement mainly because they still have to cover the mortgage.
  • Look at your social security estimate. This is available online (https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html) and will be helpful as you get more detailed in your retirement plan.


60’s+:

  • Finalize your retirement plan. Determine when you’ll retire, what your new income sources will look like, how your advisor will manage the retirement funds, when to take social security, all the exciting stuff. These are important details to nail down as you move into retirement.
  • Revisit your budget. Income, expenses, taxes, and cash-flow all change significantly in retirement. A good comparative cash-flow analysis from your advisor could prove very helpful. Usually, retirees can achieve a similar or better cash-flow with significantly less income because of how the taxes and expenses shape up (especially if that mortgage is gone!).
  • Decide what you’d like to accomplish in retirement, maybe even set some goals. The great benefit of retirement is not the ability to stop doing anything, it’s the opportunity to focus on the things you want to do. A part-time job or some sort of enjoyable work, more family time, travel with loved ones, important hobbies, these all can be part of a richly fulfilling retirement; but don’t let them simply happen to you, do them on purpose.

What’s going on inside your investment portfolio?

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Part of my job is to analyze customer portfolios. The gist is that we dig into the different investments, usually contained within different mutual funds, to figure out what people actually own in their portfolios. For many of us, it’s tough to know what’s going on behind the scenes in our portfolio because the quarterly statements only show pie charts and weird mutual fund names. So, I help to figure out what the actual stock holdings are, then organize the information by asset classes to see how many different asset classes people are invested in and what percentage of their money is allocated to each. Essentially it’s a determination of diversification, which, as we know, is the single most important component of a portfolio (check out Where do returns come from?). It’s a fun exercise, and helpful for clients. The results tend to be a little more sobering.

I estimate that about 95% of portfolios we analyze are not diversified like they should be, and about 75% of portfolios are heavily bent toward one asset class: US Large Growth (S&P 500). Those are estimates, the point is that the large majority of portfolios we see are diversified poorly or hardly at all. There are two problems here: 1) diversification is lacking, 2) the most popular asset class to load up in is US Large Growth.

The first problem has to do with the Modern Portfolio Theory. Lacking diversification means that the portfolio is subject to more risk (volatility) and will expect less return over time than an efficiently diversified portfolio. Many people think that they’re pretty well diversified because of the number of mutual fund names they see on their statement. However, we find that those mutual funds typically have significant overlap with each other. The large majority of portfolios are loaded up in US Large Growth companies because the mutual funds they own are loaded up in US Large Growth companies. Just because there are a bunch of different mutual funds doesn’t mean there are a bunch of different asset classes represented within them. Seldom do we find small companies or value companies within these mutual funds, and we almost never see small value companies. These portfolios also infrequently own anything internationally, which makes up about half of the global stock market (in 2017, the US accounted for 51.3% of the global market, leaving 48.7% often untapped). These asset classes are largely ignored in favor of US Large Growth.

The second problem has to do with the US Large Growth asset class. If US Large Growth was the best performing asset class, a lack of diversification in your portfolio would have at least some defense. The risk would still be higher than it should be, but at least you could expect some decent returns. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Going back as far as we have air-tight data on the stock market (almost 100 years), US Large Growth has been one of the worst performing asset classes in the world. That’s not to say US Large Growth a total waste, the asset class still provides good returns, and it’s valuable as a piece of a well-diversified account, but the lean towards these companies has a handicapping effect on portfolios. You simply won’t be able to expect the same level of return as you would in an efficiently diversified portfolio. Here’s a snapshot of average asset class returns over the years:

Why do most portfolios lean toward the S&P 500 despite the evidence? It seems that there are a few reasons. 1) The S&P 500 is the popular companies, the ones you’ve heard of, like Apple and Google and Amazon. They’re also all we hear about in the news. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq are all categories of Large US companies. The news cycle is constantly spinning stories about them. They’re familiar companies, and we like to think we know them better. 2) The US Large Growth asset class is cheap to trade in. There is so much trading activity going on with these stocks, they’re always in demand, there’s always a market for them. Since much of the industry is still actively trading in an attempt to beat the market, they have to trade where the trades are cheaper. If they were actively making trades in an account with small value companies, the trading costs alone would submarine any return expectations.

When we see these disappointing results in a client’s portfolio we offer them a few things. 1) For the money they can move, we offer a well-diversified portfolio which will take advantage of returns offered from higher performing asset classes while simultaneously reducing risk. 2) If the money is locked up in a 401k with a current employer, we help them analyze their options within the 401k to get as close to an efficiently diversified portfolio as possible.