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Year-end investor review

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We made it, another year is in the books and everyone has an opinion on where the market is going. My line of work involves me adamantly advising people not to try to predict markets, but even I have an opinion about what might happen in the future. Thankfully, there’s a difference between having an opinion and making a poor investing decision.

So where are we now? We’re coming off of a historically great period of market returns, especially in the category of U.S. large growth companies (the S&P 500, which happens to be the category we almost exclusively hear about in the news). Since U.S. large growth companies have faired well, so have investors, because the vast majority of investors have the majority of their investments in large U.S. growth companies. That’s great news right now. But it’s also a problem.

Large growth companies are historically one of the poorest performing asset categories in the free market. This holds in performance data going back one hundred years, but it also makes sense a priori. Large growth companies are inherently less risky than small and value companies, they stay in business longer, they seldom go bankrupt (it happens, just not as often), and their prices don’t fluctuate as significantly. Small companies are often younger, less established, and more susceptible to tough markets. Value companies are often distressed and sometimes never recover. These small and value companies default more often and their prices are more volatile, they’re riskier.

You’ve heard the principle, risk equals return. That applies here. It makes sense that as entire asset classes, small companies and value companies outperform large growth companies by a significant margin over time because their additional risk brings additional return. The fact that large growth companies have performed so well over these last ten years is great, but it also means that at some point we’ll see these returns balance out. Now, I would never pretend to know which asset classes will perform better or worse next year, that’s a fool’s errand which we refer to as ‘market timing.’ But I do know that most years will favor a diversified portfolio that leans toward small and value asset classes instead of a heavy weighting towards large growth companies. Next year the most likely circumstance is that you’ll be happy to have left your large growth company portfolio to get into a more diversified situation, which, incidentally, is true at the end of every year.

So the obvious question is how to diversify with a lean towards small and value companies. I’ve covered this before, but total market index funds won’t help you here, because of cap weighting total market funds are invested almost entirely in large growth companies. Index funds have become very popular over the last 20 years and, while they’re certainly an improvement over active funds, they’re inherently flawed. To get into an ideal portfolio takes an advisor committed to the academics of investing utilizing structured funds (a solution to the index fund problem).

Take the opportunity to review your portfolio as we head into the new year. The returns may look great, but that doesn’t mean you’re in a great portfolio.

Are you market timing?

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Market timing is the practice of moving money in and out of the market, or in and out of specific sectors of the market, based on a belief that the market, or specific sectors of the market, will do well (in which case you’d be in) or poorly (in which case you’d pull out) in the future. If you’ve read about stock picking, market timing might sound familiar. Market timing is similar because it’s also built on a false premise that the market is inefficient, but it’s also a little bit different. Market timing is more subtle than stock picking. Instead of a belief that you can buy underpriced stocks and sell overpriced stocks, market timing is a larger bet on the future of entire market sectors. It gives the allusion that you can simultaneously be well-diversified and engage in market timing since you might always own a few different asset classes. It’s sort of like stock picking in disguise (it’s often called ‘tactical asset allocation’ which sounds super smart) because it’s essentially picking market sectors (asset classes) instead of stocks. Market timing can seem more legitimate than stock picking, but it’s still essentially gambling.

Market timing is unfortunately just as pervasive in the investing world as stock picking. It is often incited by panic, people move their money around or out when the market seems especially scary and move it back again (or not) when the market feels more safe. The timing tends to be exactly opposite of what should be done, people end up selling low and buying high and sacrificing millions of dollars in returns. But damage is done apart from panic too. Dalbar (an investor research company) reports that the average equity (stock) fund investor stays invested in their funds for only 4 years before jumping to a different set of funds, perhaps unintentionally market timing. Money managers routinely shift strategies within popular mutual funds (referred to style drift), shifting focus between market sectors. Pundits constantly discuss market trends which include market timing suggestions. Similar to stock picking, we’re so immune to market timing that it just sounds like normal investing at this point. That’s bad, here are a few reasons why:

1) People are bad at market timing. A study by William Sharpe conducted in 1975 (Likely Gains from Market Timing) concluded that in order for a market timer to beat a passive fund they would have to guess right about 74% of the time. An update to the study by SEI Corporation in 1992 concluded that the market timer would have to guess right at least 69% of the time, and sometimes as high as 91% of the time in order to beat a similarly invested passive fund. So the important question is: does anyone guess right with that frequency? Maybe you’ve made your own guess by this point, the answer is a resounding no. CXO Advisory did a fascinating study on the success ratios of market timers between 2005 and 2012. They looked at 68 ‘experts’ who made a total of 6,582 predictions during that period. The average accuracy of all predictions? 46.9%, well short of the minimum 69% threshold. These predictions sell news subscriptions and online adds, but they’re detrimental to investor returns.

2) Market timers miss out on returns. Trends are a big topic in the world of investing. Market timers analyze previous trends, they track current trends, and they look for the next trend, it’s incessant. Nejat Seyhun in a 1994 study entitled “Stock Market Extremes and Portfolio Performance” analyzed the period between 1963 and 1993 (a total of 7,802 trading days) and found that only 90 of the days were responsible for 95% of the positive returns. That’s about 3 days per year on average where 95% of returns came from. In all the misguided ‘trends’ talk and the popular practice of moving money in and out and all around, market timers routinely miss the most rewarding days in the market. Instead of focusing on market trends, investors would do much better to focus on the whole market and ride the general stint of the market upwards.

3) Market timers misunderstand the market. The most culpable cause of market timing is panic. People do crazy things when they’re scared and their money is on the line. Don’t get me wrong, the stock market can seem pretty scary, and it definitely involves money, but just because it seems scary doesn’t mean you should be scared. The average market crash of 10% or more lasts just under 8 months, 4 months until it hits the bottom, and just under 4 months to return to the pre-crash high. That’s not so scary. Over the last 93 years (going back as far as we have super-reliable data) 68 years were positive by an average of 21%, 25 years were negative by an average of 13%. Also not so scary. There are 45 countries in the world with free markets and the ability to buy and sell stocks and over 17,000 companies to invest in. What would it take for a well diversified portfolio to lose everything? Only some type of global apocalyptical event, at which point you probably wouldn’t be concerned with the amount of money in your portfolio. That is scary but not because of the market, it’s actually pretty reassuring as far as your portfolio is concerned. Instead of panicking, investors would do much better to rebalance during turbulent markets and capture returns on the way back up.

So market timing is a losing game. It can’t provide any consistent value to a portfolio, it actually causes a drag on returns, and it’s often driven by an inaccurate understanding of the market. Unfortunately it’s prevalent, and many portfolios engage in market timing while investors remain unaware. So take a look, have an advisor do an analysis for you. It pays to understand how you’re invested and to avoid market timing in your portfolio.

Sources:

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/#footnote_3

https://money.usnews.com/investing/buy-and-hold-strategy/articles/2018-06-19/no-right-time-for-market-timing

Finances by age

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We’ve all heard of general financial guidelines which wisdom would suggest we follow. Dave Ramsey talks about them, financial planners use them, we all interact with them on some level. As you move through life the guidelines also move a little bit, some things you didn’t have to deal with in your 20’s become pressing in your 40’s, and vice versa. This is a breakdown of these financial guidelines by age, things that you should be thinking about based on your stage of life. This does not mean that you’ve failed if you’re working on some 20’s things in your 30’s or 40’s, or even 50’s. But these guidelines are a helpful measuring stick to see how you’re doing currently, and they provide a good pathway for lifetime financial success. Let’s dig in.

Teen years:

  • The number one thing you can do in your teens is to start developing good financial habits.
  • Stay away from consumer debt. These debts are often subject to high interest rates (credit cards), tied to depreciating assets (cars), and often end up funding things that are unnecessary. They encourage bad spending habits and can cost years to catch up from.
  • Learn to save money. Instead of unnecessary spending, practice going the other way, save up money for things you want. 
  • Learn to work hard. Financial guidelines will certainly help you succeed, but you won’t get far if you can’t earn money. 
  • Get through college with minimal student loans.


20’s:

  • Now you’re out of college and real life is set in. The number one thing you can do is create a zero-sum budget and stick to it as if your life depends on it. Give yourself some spending money, make sure to budget your savings, and again, avoid consumer debt. The budget is not a forecast of your future spending, and it’s not just for tracking your spending either, it’s for planning your spending. You intentionally decide what you’re going to spend money on and how much, and you don’t spend beyond that. 
  • Start a financial plan. Meet with an advisor, learn about how the market works, and start putting together a loose plan for retirement. Things will obviously change, but the plan will ensure that you’re pointed in the right direction.
  • Create an emergency fund. Dave Ramsey says save $1,000, that’s a good place to start. Eventually, you might work up to a month or two worth of expenses. This is how you will pay for life’s curveballs instead of using your credit card.
  • If your company offers a 401k plan, start putting some money away. The money you invest in your 20’s will work the hardest for you over the long haul. If your company’s 401k plan offers some sort of match, try to contribute whatever is required to take full advantage of the match. The free money is hard to pass up.
  • Be aggressive about paying off student loans (and any other consumer debts).
  • Start saving for a house.


30’s & 40’s:

  • Now that you’ve set the stage in your 20’s, you’re ready to start executing in your 30’s and 40’s. Keep meeting with your advisor and updating the plan, keep learning, and keep on the straight and narrow.
  • Become debt free (aside from a potential mortgage loan). If you have any consumer debt or student loans, be aggressive about paying them off.
  • Think about buying a house. Your financial plan will show you that buying a house is the most cost-effective way to provide housing, a home is a good asset. Save up a large down payment and ensure the payment fits nicely in the budget, there are few things more financially stressful than being ‘house-poor.’
  • Make a plan to pay off the house, ideally in 15 years or less. Owning a home free and clear is one of the most impactful things you can do for your retirement. It’s also a great way to help kids through college if that’s a goal of yours.
  • Increase retirement savings. You’ve been contributing enough to take advantage of the match, but there’s no need to stop there. Bump up your 401k percentage or put some extra money away in an IRA. 15% of your income is a good goal.
  • Buy some term life insurance, especially if you have children. A 20-year policy is often sufficient, the goal is to ensure that your family will be well-off in the event of a tragedy.
  • Put together a will, again, especially if you have children. It’s another way to ensure the family will be well-off in the event of a tragedy.
  • Increase the emergency fund to cover 3-6 months (or whatever number feels most comfortable) worth of expenses. Think about this money as insurance. It’s not going to earn much if anything, but that’s not what it’s for. The investments will earn money for retirement, the insurance is to shield you from unforeseen events.

50’s:

  • Talk to your advisor about your investment allocations. As you move closer to retirement, you’ll want to ensure the retirement funds will be available for you, which means you’ll probably scale back the risk factor in your portfolio, or at least have a plan in place to do so. This means owning a higher percentage of bonds and fixed income type assets and fewer equities (stocks). A good advisor will engage with you on this subject pro-actively.
  • Adjust investment contributions. It could be a good time to increase savings again to maximize what will be available in retirement. It’s the home stretch!
  • Pay off your home. I mentioned this earlier, but paying off your home is one of the most significant things you can do for your retirement. From a cash-flow perspective, it makes a ton of sense. If you owe $100,000 on your mortgage, and your payment is $750 per month, you’ll gain $9,000 in spendable cash-flow per year for spending by paying the $100,000. If you instead saved that $100,000, you would be able to pull about 5-6% per year ($5,000-$6,000) and you’d still be making the mortgage payment. A mortgage-free budget will also be much more flexible. Many people end up working in retirement mainly because they still have to cover the mortgage.
  • Look at your social security estimate. This is available online (https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html) and will be helpful as you get more detailed in your retirement plan.


60’s+:

  • Finalize your retirement plan. Determine when you’ll retire, what your new income sources will look like, how your advisor will manage the retirement funds, when to take social security, all the exciting stuff. These are important details to nail down as you move into retirement.
  • Revisit your budget. Income, expenses, taxes, and cash-flow all change significantly in retirement. A good comparative cash-flow analysis from your advisor could prove very helpful. Usually, retirees can achieve a similar or better cash-flow with significantly less income because of how the taxes and expenses shape up (especially if that mortgage is gone!).
  • Decide what you’d like to accomplish in retirement, maybe even set some goals. The great benefit of retirement is not the ability to stop doing anything, it’s the opportunity to focus on the things you want to do. A part-time job or some sort of enjoyable work, more family time, travel with loved ones, important hobbies, these all can be part of a richly fulfilling retirement; but don’t let them simply happen to you, do them on purpose.

What’s going on inside your investment portfolio?

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Part of my job is to analyze customer portfolios. The gist is that we dig into the different investments, usually contained within different mutual funds, to figure out what people actually own in their portfolios. For many of us, it’s tough to know what’s going on behind the scenes in our portfolio because the quarterly statements only show pie charts and weird mutual fund names. So, I help to figure out what the actual stock holdings are, then organize the information by asset classes to see how many different asset classes people are invested in and what percentage of their money is allocated to each. Essentially it’s a determination of diversification, which, as we know, is the single most important component of a portfolio (check out Where do returns come from?). It’s a fun exercise, and helpful for clients. The results tend to be a little more sobering.

I estimate that about 95% of portfolios we analyze are not diversified like they should be, and about 75% of portfolios are heavily bent toward one asset class: US Large Growth (S&P 500). Those are estimates, the point is that the large majority of portfolios we see are diversified poorly or hardly at all. There are two problems here: 1) diversification is lacking, 2) the most popular asset class to load up in is US Large Growth.

The first problem has to do with the Modern Portfolio Theory. Lacking diversification means that the portfolio is subject to more risk (volatility) and will expect less return over time than an efficiently diversified portfolio. Many people think that they’re pretty well diversified because of the number of mutual fund names they see on their statement. However, we find that those mutual funds typically have significant overlap with each other. The large majority of portfolios are loaded up in US Large Growth companies because the mutual funds they own are loaded up in US Large Growth companies. Just because there are a bunch of different mutual funds doesn’t mean there are a bunch of different asset classes represented within them. Seldom do we find small companies or value companies within these mutual funds, and we almost never see small value companies. These portfolios also infrequently own anything internationally, which makes up about half of the global stock market (in 2017, the US accounted for 51.3% of the global market, leaving 48.7% often untapped). These asset classes are largely ignored in favor of US Large Growth.

The second problem has to do with the US Large Growth asset class. If US Large Growth was the best performing asset class, a lack of diversification in your portfolio would have at least some defense. The risk would still be higher than it should be, but at least you could expect some decent returns. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Going back as far as we have air-tight data on the stock market (almost 100 years), US Large Growth has been one of the worst performing asset classes in the world. That’s not to say US Large Growth a total waste, the asset class still provides good returns, and it’s valuable as a piece of a well-diversified account, but the lean towards these companies has a handicapping effect on portfolios. You simply won’t be able to expect the same level of return as you would in an efficiently diversified portfolio. Here’s a snapshot of average asset class returns over the years:

Why do most portfolios lean toward the S&P 500 despite the evidence? It seems that there are a few reasons. 1) The S&P 500 is the popular companies, the ones you’ve heard of, like Apple and Google and Amazon. They’re also all we hear about in the news. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq are all categories of Large US companies. The news cycle is constantly spinning stories about them. They’re familiar companies, and we like to think we know them better. 2) The US Large Growth asset class is cheap to trade in. There is so much trading activity going on with these stocks, they’re always in demand, there’s always a market for them. Since much of the industry is still actively trading in an attempt to beat the market, they have to trade where the trades are cheaper. If they were actively making trades in an account with small value companies, the trading costs alone would submarine any return expectations.

When we see these disappointing results in a client’s portfolio we offer them a few things. 1) For the money they can move, we offer a well-diversified portfolio which will take advantage of returns offered from higher performing asset classes while simultaneously reducing risk. 2) If the money is locked up in a 401k with a current employer, we help them analyze their options within the 401k to get as close to an efficiently diversified portfolio as possible.

Part 3: The Three-Factor Model

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The Three-Factor Model was introduced by Eugene Fama and Ken French in 1991. You might remember Fama from Part 1, he is also responsible for the Efficient Market Hypothesis back in the 1960s. The Three-Factor Model is a sort of subset theory to Modern Portfolio Theory, it takes things a step further. In Modern Portfolio Theory (Part 2) we see that strategic diversification is important for successful investing, The Three-Factor Model deals with the ‘strategic’ part of diversification. This research is very important for constructing portfolios. It means that you don’t want to simply owns lots of different asset classes, you want to own the right amount of the right asset classes to increase returns at minimal risk (volatility). As you might have guessed, there are three factors:

  1. Stocks outperform bonds (market effect). We want to be in the stock market. Bonds are good as you get closer to retiring because they’re not as volatile, but stocks will give the long-term returns that will allow for you to retire in the first place.
  2. Small companies outperform large companies (size effect). Large companies are the popular investment. We hear about the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq in the news almost exclusively; they’re all measurements of the largest US companies. Large companies are cheap to own, easy to trade, and you’ve heard of many of them, they make for a very popular investment. But over time, small companies will give you better returns. An ideal portfolio will not only include small companies, but it will also lean towards them.
  3. Value companies outperform growth companies (value effect). ‘Value’ means that the stock of a company is valued more closely to the actual worth of its assets. The stocks don’t have a built-in premium for growth potential because the companies aren’t expected to grow much. The stock prices of growth companies are much higher than the actual value of the company’s assets because of their potential, their expected growth. They’re also more popular than value companies, examples include Apple and Amazon and Google. Over time, value companies will give a better return than growth companies. Again, an ideal portfolio will not only include value companies, but it will also lean towards them.

The point of all this research is to help construct a better portfolio. Investing is not a shot in the dark or a gut feeling. It’s not even an educated guess about which asset classes or companies will make a jump next year. Investing is an academic exercise. We put these pieces of research together to model a portfolio that will put investors in the best position to capture market returns next year, and the year after, and every year moving forward. There are no pretensions that we know what will happen next year, we simply stay disciplined and diversified, we follow the rules, and we let the market do its work.