The Savings Quandry

neonbrand-JW6r_0CPYec-unsplash

We live in a fiat currency world. ‘Fiat’ simply means government-backed. The paper that dollars are written on is pretty close to worthless, but the U.S. government guarantees its value and other countries do the same for their own fiat currencies. The U.S. dollar is worth something, more than most other fiat currencies, because it’s backed by the most powerful government in the world. There are a few implications of this:

  1. In the past, humanity has utilized a multitude of different items or elements or commodities as money, ranging from cattle to gold, beads to shells, and anything in between. Very few of history’s currency still exist as anything resembling money for one main reason, they could be produced. The most important characteristic of money, or of anything valuable, is its rarity, the difficulty (or preferably the impossibility) of creating more of it. In order for money to hold value, it can’t be producible, there must be a limited supply. If it’s producible, there’s a massive incentive for people to produce it, and when people produce more of something, that thing loses value. This has happened countless times throughout history. Some Native American tribes used Wampum beads (gleaned from shells and clams) as money and used them to trade with European settlers. European settlers, with superior technology, were able to mass-produce the beads causing a massive devaluation. Wampum beads were inflated (or devalued, they mean the same thing) to the point that they became worthless, leaving the Native American tribes using them destitute. A similar issue is presented when we try to use commodities as money (silver, coffee, copper, etc.). Commodities are valuable (many us would be lost without our morning coffee and we’d have a hard time building skyscrapers without steel), but when demand for a commodity increases, so does the production of that commodity, so its value decreases. Money doesn’t need to have intrinsic value, it doesn’t have to be useful for anything else, it simply needs to be able to reasonably hold value through scarcity.
  2. Since we use fiat currency, the government controls the dollar and consequently has the ability to produce more of it. When they do, inflation happens. The government likes inflation. Since the U.S. officially and fully entered the fiat currency game in 1971, the U.S. dollar has been inflated (devalued) by around 3.86% per year, on average. The government introduces more money into the economy through various convoluted debt instruments and stimulus packages, decreasing the value of existing dollars. The belief is that a certain amount of inflation is good for an economy because it promotes spending and borrowing, the opposites of saving. It’s definitely not helpful for saving. If you left $100k in your savings account in an average year, at 3.86% inflation you would lose almost $4k. If the money is in a savings account, maybe the bank would offer you a tiny bit of interest to offset some of the loss. If you’re lucky you might get 1%, but you would still lose $3k. In one year! Leave your money alone in a bank account or under your mattress for any amount of time and you’re out a significant portion of your savings.

So the question remains, how do we save money?

Thankfully, there’s an answer. The solution to the devaluation of our dollars is investing. Specifically, investing in companies through the stock market. All that talk about long-term investing, diversification, portfolios, the stock market, etc., that stuff all has merit. The best way to overcome inflation in our day and age is to invest money in companies, and let it grow. The stock market is the great hedge against inflation. Market returns, over time, always outpace inflation. It doesn’t happen every year, when the market is down it can definitely be worse than inflation, but if you give it time, the market will always win, and by a large margin.

Unfortunately, as things are presently constituted, saving money is not incentivized. Fiat money and inflation encourage borrowing and spending. But, saving is more important now than ever (who’s in line for a pension when they retire?), and the stock market offers an incredible store of value, one that increases exponentially over time. Don’t skimp on your investments.

Why was gold ever the standard?

rupixen-com-liTBV5RQdbQ-unsplash

You’ve probably heard about the ‘gold standard’ at some point, maybe in school, maybe in the news, but have you ever wondered what makes gold so special? Why would gold be the standard? 

In order for money to work it has to possess certain characteristics:

  1. It must be difficult to produce, or scarce. Commodities (such as crude oil, steel, iron, corn, copper, etc.) fail as vehicles of value because of their producibility. When a commodity becomes more valuable, production of the commodity ramps up (enriching the producers) which drives the value back down to normal levels. Commodities are relatively easy to produce, and that keeps their value in check. The fact is that commodities have more value for their practical purposes (building, eating, etc.) than as a value holder (money).
    Gold has thrived through history because it’s scarce and impossible to re-create. The only way to infuse more gold into an economy is to find it and dig it up from the ground, a costly and arduous process. Gold also doesn’t have many practical applications as a commodity (not great for building things because it’s soft, and tastes terrible, useful for jewelry though).
  2. It must be durable. Monetary units that can corrode and rot cannot maintain their value over time (even silver is a victim of this problem).
    Gold is one of the purest and durable resources on the planet. It doesn’t oxidize or corrode regardless of its surroundings, you could even find some at the bottom of the ocean in a hundreds-of-years-old shipwreck, still in perfect condition. Since it’s so durable, the supply never goes down. If a person in history found the gold, it’s likely that a person still owns that gold. This is an important point. It means that even if a bunch of people became gold miners and found a bunch of gold one year, the total infusion of gold would still be a very small percentage of the total gold available. The largest infusion of gold into a modern economy was in 1940 when the total stockpile increased by only 2.6%, it hasn’t increased by over 2% in one year since. 

These interesting facts about gold have made it the most popular currency throughout history. It doesn’t inherently hold any value, but it makes for a great global unit of account. 

Year-end investor review

frank-busch-PzifgmBsxCc-unsplash.jpg

We made it, another year is in the books and everyone has an opinion on where the market is going. My line of work involves me adamantly advising people not to try to predict markets, but even I have an opinion about what might happen in the future. Thankfully, there’s a difference between having an opinion and making a poor investing decision.

So where are we now? We’re coming off of a historically great period of market returns, especially in the category of U.S. large growth companies (the S&P 500, which happens to be the category we almost exclusively hear about in the news). Since U.S. large growth companies have faired well, so have investors, because the vast majority of investors have the majority of their investments in large U.S. growth companies. That’s great news right now. But it’s also a problem.

Large growth companies are historically one of the poorest performing asset categories in the free market. This holds in performance data going back one hundred years, but it also makes sense a priori. Large growth companies are inherently less risky than small and value companies, they stay in business longer, they seldom go bankrupt (it happens, just not as often), and their prices don’t fluctuate as significantly. Small companies are often younger, less established, and more susceptible to tough markets. Value companies are often distressed and sometimes never recover. These small and value companies default more often and their prices are more volatile, they’re riskier.

You’ve heard the principle, risk equals return. That applies here. It makes sense that as entire asset classes, small companies and value companies outperform large growth companies by a significant margin over time because their additional risk brings additional return. The fact that large growth companies have performed so well over these last ten years is great, but it also means that at some point we’ll see these returns balance out. Now, I would never pretend to know which asset classes will perform better or worse next year, that’s a fool’s errand which we refer to as ‘market timing.’ But I do know that most years will favor a diversified portfolio that leans toward small and value asset classes instead of a heavy weighting towards large growth companies. Next year the most likely circumstance is that you’ll be happy to have left your large growth company portfolio to get into a more diversified situation, which, incidentally, is true at the end of every year.

So the obvious question is how to diversify with a lean towards small and value companies. I’ve covered this before, but total market index funds won’t help you here, because of cap weighting total market funds are invested almost entirely in large growth companies. Index funds have become very popular over the last 20 years and, while they’re certainly an improvement over active funds, they’re inherently flawed. To get into an ideal portfolio takes an advisor committed to the academics of investing utilizing structured funds (a solution to the index fund problem).

Take the opportunity to review your portfolio as we head into the new year. The returns may look great, but that doesn’t mean you’re in a great portfolio.

Your 401k account is probably loaded up in the wrong asset class

 

timj-EJ4qfFp1g8Q-unsplash.jpg

401k accounts good and bad. They’re mostly good because they provide an avenue for people to save and invest money for their future, but there are some things to watch out for.

Good stuff:

  • The main benefit of a 401k is that it allows you to invest qualified money. You could just invest money on your own, but investing in your 401k accounts means that you get some significant tax advantages (no capital gains on the growth of your investments and an income tax break). The same advantages apply to IRA accounts, but 401ks include two other significant advantages.
  • Many employers offer a matching contribution. For example, if you contribute a certain small percentage of your income (say 5%), the employer may kick in an additional small percentage into your 401k account (say 4%). That’s free money, and you should definitely take it.
  • 401k contributions are capped at $19,000 per year by the employee, employer contributions can exceed that. IRA contributions are capped at $6,000 per year. Not all of us are maxing out our qualified retirement accounts, but the larger cap offered by 401k accounts is certainly an advantage.

Bad stuff:

  • 401k accounts offer a limited number of investing options, and they’re almost never great. 401k Plan sponsors (employers) are typically concerned with one thing when choosing a plan: cost. If the plan seems expensive it will be harder to explain to the board, regardless of the value or benefits of the portfolio and the advisor.
  • Your money is locked up for as long as you work at the company. You’re stuck with the options available and you can’t move the money elsewhere unless you leave or retire.
  • Investors have little to no help deciding which funds or options to use within the 401k so they end up in default options, which are usually target dated funds. You may have seen these funds that end with a future year, like 2045, which you’d be in if you were expected to retire sometime around 2045. A target dated fund is not the worst investment you could be in (which isn’t saying much) but it’s far from ideal. A target dated fund will load you up in U.S. large growth companies (essentially the S&P 500), sprinkle in some international large growth companies, and decide what percentage of your money should be in bonds based on the target year. Unfortunately, in the history of the market, large growth company asset classes are among the lowest-performing of any asset classes over time. A target dated fund is usually made up of index funds (along with their inherent problems) so at least it’s not active, but it will sacrifice large amounts of return over time because of its poor diversification.

Don’t be afraid to use your 401k account, especially if your employer offers a matching contribution (again, free money). But if you’ve obtained the maximum matching contribution, think about investing additional money into a better portfolio through an IRA. Unfortunately, your 401k is probably loaded up in the wrong asset class.

Parenting by explanation

sabine-van-straaten-HF4Hy8jFhEY-unsplash.jpg

I ran into a super interesting study the other day in an almost as interesting book called Originals by Adam Grant. That’s not a subtle dig, the book is really good, but the study is incredibly interesting. It was published in 1992 as The Altruistic Personality by Samuel and Pearl Oliner.

The Oliners wanted to find out what drove non-Jews to risk their lives to aid and hide Jews during the Nazi rein in Europe. What was the difference between those who stuck out their necks and those who sat passively by? These people shared similar careers, lived in the same neighborhoods, attended the same schools, etc. They shared much in common, but one of the most significant differences the Oliners found involved how they were raised. The rescuers often used the word ‘explained’ to characterize their parent’s method of parenting. When they were disciplined or reprimanded, their parents tended to explain why what they did was wrong and how their actions affected other people. The explanations were good for a few things: 1) The explanations fostered values. An explanation can tie behavior to identity, a good person can’t steal toys and make other kids feel bad. Instead of a focus on rote compliance, the focus is on forming identities. 2) Explanations treat children as rational people with the ability to make choices and changes. Instead of demanding obedience, explanations help children see their need and ability to take responsibility for their own actions.

For those who risked their lives to save others during the Nazzi occupation, explanations from their parents had shifted their risk calculation from one of cost versus benefits to one of weighing values. If the cost versus benefit equation was utmost, there’s no question it would have made more sense to stay on the sidelines during the Nazi occupation. The risk was literally death. But if the calculation was one of personal values and identity, it becomes nearly impossible to sit idly by while fellow humans suffer injustice.

So next time your child makes a mistake or acts out or generally struggles with disobedience, talk to them when you discipline them. Help them see how their actions affect other people. Use language that addresses their identity (who they want to be) instead of purely focusing on the act (what they did). Turns out parenting is pretty important, and an explanation from a parent can go a long way.